Oscar Predictions...

Here's what I think will, won't, and might happen Sunday night (at 8 pm on ABC!!)...

BEST ACTOR
Will win: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Won't win: Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
Might win: Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain

I think PSH has this one locked up, but I wouldn't necessarily take Heath out of the running yet. If Walk the Line had come out last year (the year of the biography!), Joaquin may have had a shot. This year, no chance.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will win: Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
Won't win: Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
Might win: The Clooney, Syriana

I think Best Supporting Actor is the category to watch this year. It really is the most wide-open of all. Everyone nominated genuinely deserves to be there. I think Paul Giamatti will take it for his body of work, but The Clooney may just get it instead. He is, after all, Hollywood royalty and has done a total about-face (Facts of Life, anyone?).

BEST ACTRESS
Will win: Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
Won't win: Keira Knightley, Pride and Prejudice
Might win: Felicity Huffman, Transamerica

From the time I saw Walk the Line, I felt like this was Reese's year. This really was the role of a lifetime for her, and I think the Academy may respect her having such an amazing career at such a young age. Keira should be happy to be nominated and choose a gorgeous dress to show off on the Red Carpet (yes, I capitalized it...you gotta problem with that?). Felicity has been slowly gathering steam for her role as a man going through the process of becoming a woman, but I don't think she can edge out Reese.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will win: Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
Won't win: Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain
Might win: Catherine Keener, Capote

As Rachel has pretty much swept the awards in this category up to now, I think she'll take home the Oscar as well. This nomination should be a key turning point in Michelle Williams' career. She has overcome her Dawson days with grace and maturity. I think the Academy will continue to look favorably on her work. Catherine Keener is a respected actress and Capote has been getting a lot more press lately because of Philip Seymour Hoffman's recognition.

BEST DIRECTOR
Will win: Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
Won't win: Steven Spielberg
Might win: The Clooney, Good Night and Good Luck

Brokeback Mountain has lost some of its momentum in the last few weeks, but everyone is still talking about what a beautiful movie it was and how great Ang Lee is (especially after that Big Green debacle). Steven, we're really, really, really, really ready for that new Indiana Jones movie, okay? Stop with these other projects and make that top priority...before Harrison Ford pierces his other ear. The Clooney is the dark horse on this one. He attacked several deep political issues this year and may just be rewarded for one. I think he ultimately has a better shot at Best Supporting Actor, though.

BEST PICTURE
Will win: Brokeback Mountain
Won't win: Munich
Might win: Crash

Everyone has said Brokeback Mountain is a lock in this category, and I think it will ultimately be rewarded as a whole film (rather than on an individual actor basis). However, since Crash won the SAG for best cast, its odds are also pretty good. Munich? No. Indy, Steven, we want our Indy!!

I'll be back next week for an update on winners and losers and the most important...FASHION!